I recently came across a newly coined word:
anticipointment: The state of
mind resulting from excitedly anticipating a strongly promoted product,
event, film, etc, and then being disappointed when it fails to meet the
expectations generated by this promotion.
It’s
a portmanteau (one of my favorite linguistic items) of anticipation and
disappointment, obviously. Every
year, films are released that live up to their hype, and many that don’t.
Considering we have, this year, two highly anticipated films “The Dark Knight
Rises,” and “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” I thought it would be fitting
to give some perspective. Let’s all look forward to these films, as I am, but
let’s not get out hopes up too high.
Why
don’t we use nerd math (redundant?) to describe how anticipointing 2012 might
be? We can use "Star Wars Episode I" as the constant for
anticipointment.
Star Wars Episode I
 |
| Considering it is this abomination for which the word
was coined, why not? |
"Return of the Jedi" was released in 1983, and Episode I
in 1999. That's 16 years of building anticipation and 136 minutes of
disappointment. Averaging out the metacritic scores (because they're the most
useful, that's why. Don't question me) for the original trilogy gives a 73.67 (which is surprisingly low due to a relatively bad score of 52 for Return of the Jedi.
 |
| Even Episode II somehow scored higher...weird. |
So a
73.67 graded series multiplied by 16 years of buildup is a 1,178.72
anticipation score —or A score (to save space, but also to make you have to
keep coming back to reference what it stands for and actually take MORE of your
time). Episode I has a running time (which I will call L…again, because
I can) of 136 minutes long (only about 10 of which are watchable, but I
digress).
Now if A=1,1178.72
and L=136,
and dividing A
by L
gives us the amount of anticipointment score, which will be DPM (for
disappointment/minute) of 8.67.
Now,
let’s use this equation on two of the most anticipated upcoming films:
The Hobbit: an Unexpected Journey
The
Lord of the Rings Trilogy has an average metacritic score of 91.33 (far better
than the Star Wars Trilogy, and I’m inclined to agree, but that’s just me).
“Return of the King” was released in 2003, and the first Hobbit film will be
released in December, which is just 9 years.
91.33 multiplied by 9 years gives
an A
score of 821
Of course, it’s impossible to know the exact DPM until the film is
released, but if we average out the lengths of the LOTR films, we can expect The
Hobbit Part 1 will have a L of about 186.
In other words, if “Star Wars Episode I” 8.67 DPM of anticipointment, and because
I not completely arbitrarily decided that’s the constant
“George-Lucas-Raped-My-Childhood” reference point, that means The Hobbit will
be about 51% as anticipointing as Episode I. Not too bad, but many will probably still vow vengeance on Peter Jackson
(in Elvish, no doubt).
 |
| Probably no crying, but still,
half as bad as rape is
still uncomfortable. |
The Dark Knight Rises
The first two films in the series have an average metacritic
score of 76. It’s only been 4 years since “The Dark Knight” blew us away. So
that gives us a relatively small A score of 304. Because the film is about to be
released, we already know the L will be 164.
This anticipointment score is a perfect example of how filmmakers should
proceed. Despite the series having a generally higher grade than Star Wars, the
short wait builds expectation so much less that it will only be about 21% as
anticipointing.
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| And from what we've seen so far, about 80% as audible. |
To
be fair, though, this is merely the third in a trilogy and not a prequel as the
other two examples I gave. To give a fair score, we need to compare the DPM of the
third installments of the other two series.
Using the same equation, Return of
the Jedi came out 3 years after Empire, and the re-adjusted mean metacritic
scores for the series-to-date was 84.5 giving the A score of 253.5 (not even as much as TDKR). Return of
the Jedi had a L
134 mi, giving us 1.89 DPM.
Peter Jackson, being the economical and smart man
he is, filmed the last bit of LOTR simultaneously, so we only had to wait a
year for the third installment. The readjusted metacritic mean of 90 over
a year is still just 90. The
lengthy L
of 201, spreads out the anticipointment score to give .45 DPM. Such a small
anticpointment barely registers, and if you recall, “Return of the King” went
on to win all eleven Academy Awards for which it was nominated.
 |
| Also "Best Movie" from MTV...cause that means something. |
To
further complicate the issue, “The Dark Knight Rises” has another obstacle, the
Heath Ledger variable (alternatively known as Dead Celebrity Inflation).
Everyone loves a dead celebrity. Hell, even Michael Jackson was instantly
forgiven of a lifetime of weirdness as soon as he passed.
 |
| Doesn't anyone remember this? |
When people die, it is suddenly forbidden to speak ill of them. With celebrities, this is exacerbated by retroactive adoration; suddenly, everyone was their biggest fan and had always thought they were the greatest artist ever.
Don’t get me wrong, Heath Ledger was
phenomenal as the Joker, and he truly brought it, but has anyone really said
otherwise? Can you recall ANYONE -even people who hate almost everything- saying
Heath Ledger’s portrayal wasn't for them?
The same could be said for Amy
Winehouse, Kurt Cobain, James Dean, and pretty much anyone in the 27 Club. They
were all very talented and had great potential, but at least some of this
adoration is because of this reverence for the dead. At least some of what is
attributed to these deceased celebrities is due to Dead Celebrity Inflation.
So, “The Dark Knight Rises” not only has to be compared to “The Dark Knight” by
their actual merits, but it also has to compete with weighting given to Heath
Ledger as a dead celebrity. No matter how good Tom Hardy’s Bane could ever be,
would anyone ever feel comfortable sayin it’s better than Heath Ledger?
 |
| At least we have annoying D-bags to continue dressing like this for Halloween. |
As
for the Hobbit, the almost ten years since the Lord of the Rings trilogy
finished is only part of the problem Peter Jackson has to face. He also seems
to be falling prey to one of George Lucas’ illnesses: New Toy Syndrome.
Lucas got hold of new CG technology and used it excessively to the detriment of
basically everything.
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| Except for giving Jabba a singer...that was totally necessary. |
Peter Jackson luckily still believes in his Weta Workshop
and continues to do wonders with characters and set dressing. For some reason,
though, he is flouting the traditional frame rate of film (24 fps) and doubling
it to 48 fps.
Essentially, the complaint is that it makes everything extremely
crisp and in focus. To top that it’s going to be in 3D. It doesn’t sound too
bad, except that from what little I’ve seen and the common complaint with the
footage shown to small groups so far is that, though Weta does amazing makeup
work, shooting it in a hyper-realistic way calls attention to the fakeness of
it all. You can almost see the proverbial zipper.
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| Maybe not a zipper, but I clearly see a bald cap. |
At any rate (pun!),
Peter Jackson is well aware that it takes some getting used to, but
assures us that once we do, the new technology will bring us into the world in
a much greater way. Let's hope he's right.
So
there you have it. Two of the most anticipated films of the year and the
struggle they have to overcome to not be giant disappointments. I cross my
fingers and hope I can still enjoy them. Considering what the Peter
Jackson and Christopher Nolan administrations have given us so far, I think we’ll be okay. But then again,
George Lucas was once a man who could do no wrong…now he is the founding father
of an emotion we now have a word for: anticipointment.
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| Also gave us an explanation for a force we didn't want explained...using what appears to be a Women's Gillette Sensor Excel |
